Andrews: Inside the betting action for NFL Week 1 games

September 10, 2022 05:40 PM
Tom_Brady

The second Sunday in September of 2022 marks the first full card of NFL action that we have seen since the 2021 regular season ended on Jan. 9 earlier this year.

It feels like the anticipation grows with every coming year. It was indeed a special off-season though as my dear friends and colleagues, Vinny Magliulo and Jimmy Vaccaro, and myself, were all fortunate enough to be elected into the Sports Betting Hall of Fame over the summer. We feel like a lot of this honor is based upon not only our longevity in the industry but how we have treated our players over the years and our attention to an amicable relationship with our customers rather than one that is adversarial. With that, come on over to South Point this football season and say hello. We're excited about this season kicking off as much as you are.

Let's get to Week 1 in the NFL and as always, we'll run down the games in official Nevada rotation order.

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 44) at New York Jets

Note that we opened these games so long ago, May 15 to be exact. Most of the action all the way up until just the last couple of weeks has been small in dollar amounts. We opened 5 in favor of the Ravens and it slowly ticked up. When Zach Wilson was injured, they continued to lay it, all the way to 7, and the public kept on even at Ravens -7 but that is when the sharps jumped in and took the points. Personally, I didn't make much of an adjustment at all for Wilson versus Joe Flacco at quarterback. The wiseguys are betting the number, a home dog getting a touchdown on opening day.

New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 43) at Atlanta Falcons

We opened this Saints -4 and they laid it. I skipped 5 and went to 5.5 and while it has been mostly public action, we are still writing a lot of Saints business and not much of anything on Atlanta. Quite a few bettors are high on New Orleans this season. I still have some questions with the new coach, etc. I wouldn't be comfortable laying a big number on the road with this Saints team and if we get to 6 or 6.5, I think that is when we'll finally see some sharp Falcons money.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 46)

I opened Miami -2.5 and they laid it – and then some real bets came in, taking me to 3, and another sizable bet took me to 3.5. We're now getting even action at 3.5. The money line has been significant, too. I opened -150 on the Dolphins. They bet me at -150, -160, -170 and I just moved to -180. The total has been all sharp money on the Over, from 44.5 all the way to 47, before we got some Under money and now I'm back to 46, where we are getting pretty even action.

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (PK, 42)

We opened this long before all of the Deshaun Watson stuff went down at Browns -4 and they took it and they kept taking it at 3.5. Then it became evident that Watson was not going to play, so we took it off of the board. We reopened the game at Panthers -2 and they laid it up to 2.5. Then it came back the other way. They took 2.5, 2, 1.5, 1, all the way to pick 'em, where I am now.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)

This game has not moved one iota. I opened Bengals -6.5 and 44.5 and it's still there. The money line hasn’t moved either as we are still at -180 on Cincinnati. It's really a pretty popular game, but I've heard so many different opinions on the Steelers, good and bad, and that is reflected in the action. The sharps have not hit this one hard at all. The action is split, but it is mostly public money on the Bengals.

San Francisco 49ers (-7, 40.5) at Chicago Bears

I opened Niners -6. Sharp money laid it and I was still taking some sharp bets at 6.5. I went to 7 and the wiseguys are now grabbing the points. It hasn't been enough yet to go back to 6.5, but I think it's coming. They've been hitting the Under, too. I opened 42 and am now down to 40.5.

Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 48.5) at Detroit Lions

We opened at 4 on the Eagles and it sat there for a while, really all the way until this Friday before they started laying it. I went to 4.5 and am now at 5. It has been both wiseguys and recreational bettors backing the Eagles.

Indianapolis Colts (-7, 46) at Houston Texans

I opened Colts -8 and they took it. They took it at 7.5 and now I'm at 7. Anything higher than 7 has been all wiseguys. The public is pretty heavy on the Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders (-2.5, 44)

Washington opened -4 and they took it. They took the 3.5 and then earlier this week, they took the 3. Pretty strong sharp action on the Jaguars. The public is definitely on the Commanders at 2.5 and we may see some wiseguys come back on Washington with it now being under a field goal but it hasn't happened yet.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 53.5) at Arizona Cardinals

I opened 3 and they laid it. They laid a little more at 3.5 and then 4 and 4.5. When the wiseguys bet me at 4.5 I moved all the way to Chiefs -6, and they're still laying it. I see 6.5s in the market, but I'm going to wait for another bet before I go there. It's been all Chiefs from both the public and the sharps.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 52)

Like the Steelers, the Raiders are another team that I have heard a ton of different opinions on, again, both good and bad. I kinda like 'em. The defense may have some problems, but I think their offense is legit. We opened Chargers -4. Didn't take too much action but enough to move it to 3.5. Pretty even action at 3.5. It has been mostly public on the Raiders, but I have a feeling the wiseguys are going to come in and grab the 3 with a hook.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 47) at Minnesota Vikings

We opened -1.5, went to 2, and then got some pretty decent sharp and public money on the Vikings. We're back down to -1.5 on Green Bay but I think we're going to continue to get both public and sharp money on Minnesota. Packers could get off to a rough start.

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (-5.5, 44)

We opened Titans laying the full 7 and the sharps took the 7, they took 6.5, and the 6, and now I'm down to 5.5. The public is on the Titans, but the sharp money is all on the Giants and pretty heavily on anything 6 or better. I tell ya, this move does have me a little puzzled.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 50) at Dallas Cowboys

This game has been all over the place. We opened 2 and the first move was on the favorite, so I went to 2.5. Then you had all the Tom Brady stuff, not in camp, all the Brady rumors, and they took the points. I was all the way down to Bucs -1. Now Brady's back and Dak Prescott has an ankle issue this week in practice, so up we go, back to 2.5 on Tampa. It's been pretty even action ever since at 2.5. I think that's a pretty good number.

Denver Broncos (-7, 44) at Seattle Seahawks

We opened this one 4.5. They laid me 4.5, 5, 5.5, 6 – all the way up to 6.5, and as I write this, I just decided to go to 7 on the Broncos because I felt it's going there anyway. It's been all Denver money, both public and sharp. The sharps laid anything under 6. No support at all for Seattle.

Have a great Sunday everybody and I hope to see you at South Point this weekend. Remember, on NFL sides, we are always at -110 as we don't adjust the juice on the point spread.

Chris Andrews is the sportsbook director at the South Point in Las Vegas and has been a Nevada bookmaker for 40 years.

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