The annual Army/Navy game has its standalone spot in Week 15 once again and the game is drawing a lot of betting action. After a run of 15 straight unders, the total has been greatly adjusted and that is one of this week's big stories.
South Point Sportsbook Director Chris Andrews has a market report on the action that he has seen and Adam Burke has a pick on the game.
Market Report from Chris Andrews: We opened Army -7.5. Sharps bet underdog Navy. We’re down to Army -7 as I write this. But, we are taking a lot of money on the Black Knights at the new price. I have a feeling we’ll be back to Army -7.5 eventually. This is the only major college football game Saturday. Recreational bettors will want the favorite. My opening total of 35 was bet Under. The South Point moved with the market down to 34. Since, we’ve been bet back up to 34.5. I expect to be back to 35 by kickoff.
Pick from Adam Burke: We should all own some prime real estate in a very desirable location thanks to this game, as the Army/Navy under has hit 15 times in a row. It will be much more difficult this time around, however, with a total adjusted down to 34. Per Brad Powers, a regular guest on VSiN, the total would be 8-6-1 to the over with this year’s total.
We used to regularly have totals in the 50s for this game, but that is no longer the case anymore. You can certainly make a case for the over this year. Army’s games have averaged 58 total points and Navy’s have averaged 50, though there are some significant outliers on the Army side, like the 70-56 game against Wake Forest of the 63-10 win over Bucknell.
Navy dominated this game with annual wins from 2002-15, but Army has won four of the last five. Army won 15-0 last season, marking the first time since 1990 that the Black Knights won by double digits.
This game is usually pretty close, which makes sense because both teams run an identical offense and see it in practice every week. The level of familiarity is off the charts here. Army was the better team with the far better record, but also played a schedule that was over 30 spots worse according to Sagarin’s strength of schedule metrics.
There are 7.5s out there on this game and that would be much better than taking 7 here with the Midshipmen. Every half-point matters in a stalemate such as this.
Pick: Navy + 7.5