Analyzing NFL QBs for betting success

December 7, 2021 10:24 PM

I have always been a football handicapper who puts a ton of stock into the quality of quarterback play. In my opinion, there is no more important position in all of sports betting, and that includes starting pitchers in baseball. To put in simply: NFL teams that are good at QB always seem to be in the postseason hunt. Those that have an annual carousel at the position are usually home for the playoffs, changing coaches and looking forward to replacing their quarterback in the upcoming draft.

As bettors, we generally believe that team success translates into point-spread success, so teams with better quarterbacks make for better bets. With that in mind, here is my annual snapshot of each current starting or rotating NFL quarterback, examining their betting performance records in many scenarios.

Of the 33 quarterbacks analyzed, 20 boast an ATS record of 50 percent or better (I’ve included both Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill of the Saints). The rest of the league’s quarterback situations are quite stable for this time of year, as we haven’t been hit as hard as usual by injuries or the rotating QB carousel. Mac Jones (9-4 ATS, 69 percent) tops the list of overall ATS success among players who have started at least 10 games, with Zach Wilson (22 percent) and Trevor Lawrence (33 percent), the top two picks in last spring’s draft, bringing up the rear.

Here are some of the top betting trend highlights I noted:

— Teddy Bridgewater has an amazing 20-3 ATS mark as a road underdog.

— Patrick Mahomes is 8-0 ATS as a road underdog, with his offense putting up 35.9 ppg.

— Josh Allen has dominated the NFC, going 10-3 SU and ATS to date.

— Jimmy Garoppolo has been successful as an underdog, going 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS.

— Dak Prescott is money against divisional rivals, as he boasts a 21-6 SU and 19-8 ATS record in those games in his career.

At the same time, here are some of the worst performance marks you’ll want to keep an eye on:

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