An In-Depth Look at NBA Finals Game 6

It was the shout heard ‘round the world.

From bettors who had taken the Toronto Raptors to cover the point spread in this past Monday night’s Game 6 from bettors who had backed the pre-series underdog to win the 2019 NBA World Championship at a big payoff -- from avid “We the North” fans -- and even from neutral observers who had watched basketball their whole lives. They all yelled incredulously, “Why are you calling a timeout?!!!”

With 3:05 left, Toronto in possession of the ball enjoying a 103-97 lead (on the heels of a 12-2 run that seemingly had the Golden State Warriors ready to wave the white flag), the Raptors made the signal.

You know what happened after the timeout. Klay Thompson trey. Steph Curry trey. Thompson again. Ball game.

Toronto head coach Nick Nurse explained later that he didn’t want to “lose” a timeout after the game went below the three-minute mark. And, he wanted to give his stars a chance to re-charge their batteries. Instead, the Warriors regained their fight. The Raptors couldn’t breathe or execute.

Action resumes Thursday night in Oakland (ABC, 9 p.m. ET). With Kevin Durant definitely out, oddsmakers first put Golden State on the board at -3.5. Sharps bet Toronto with the hook -- and many kept betting the Raptors when global sportsbooks dropped to -3. We may see a closer below 3 depending on game-day action.

Why so much sharp interest in the potentially demoralized underdog?

While Toronto may still be suffering shellshock, it has established superiority when Durant is in street clothes. And, Golden State’s extended series life was the result of a massive 20-8 edge in made 3-pointers Monday (on 47.6% to 25%). That will be very tough to replicate. Toronto had made six more treys in the series through the first five games.

If you accept the premise that scoring “inside the arc” is the most reliable and consistent offensive skill set, Toronto grades out as more likely to control its destiny. Here are “final scores” from this series if you throw out 3-pointers…

SERIES SCORING ON 1’S AND 2’S

G1: Toronto 79, Golden State 73

G2: Toronto 71, Golden State 70

G3: Golden State 73, Toronto 72

G4: Toronto 75, Golden State 68

G5: Toronto 84, Golden State 46

Sharps will take at least three points with that backdrop, as they assume trey production will regress back to series norms. T

oronto is still a hefty -300 to win the title (risk $300 to win $100, or anything in that ratio). The market isn’t yet anticipating any sort of “choke job of the century.” The Raptors have two chances to win one game. They will likely be at least 3-point home favorites in a seventh game if needed. Golden State is 240 to rally all the way back (risk $100 to win $240, etc.).

Let’s see if Game 6 gives bettors and fans something to shout about.

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