Alvarez-Golovkin III is on: Who has the edge?

By Dave Ross  (VSIN.com) 

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So the trilogy … is on!! At last, we get the third fight and more than likely an end to the rivalry that is Canelo Alvarez- Gennadiy Golovkin. The first time these two met? Way back in 2017 in a fight that went the distance and was ruled a majority draw. Most ringside observers believed Triple G had done enough work that night to get his arm raised, but in the end, both had theirs raised in a decision that satisfied very few in the boxing community, and neither fighter.

The rematch was fought a year later in September 2018, and the rematch was again, very close and went all 12 rounds. Again, many boxing observers believed Gennady had done enough to prove he was the better fighter, just like the previous year. Once again, the judges saw it differently, but instead of a majority draw, Canelo was awarded a split-decision victory en route to claiming the WBA and WBC middleweight crowns.

Now, four years removed from their last encounter, once again a September Las Vegas date is in store for these future Hall of Famers and inside the squared circle. This time they will be fighting for Canelo's super middleweight crown, but in essence, they are fighting for historical bragging rights.

Canelo is coming off his first loss since 2013, to Dmitry Bivol in May. Before that, Canelo hadn't tasted defeat since he received a boxing clinic at the hands of Floyd Mayweather nine years earlier.

For his part, Gennady, the current IBO and IBF champion, picked up the WBA super middleweight title with his latest win in April in Japan over Ryota Murata via a ninth-round TKO.

Now at 40, Triple G is 42-1-1, but the “ones” in his record, thanks to Canelo, still stick in his craw. Alvarez, now 32, still boasts a stellar 57-2-2 record, but the fights with Triple G remain two of the most disputed and debated to this day.

The past is prologue, but the present is Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. What might surprise some, and certainly raises my eyebrows are the current fight odds. Canelo is a massive -550 favorite, with the Kazakhstani legend set at + 380. The total rounds prop stands at 10.5 with the Over juiced heavily at -190. If you think this fight will buck the trend of the first two fights and go Under, it's solid plus money at + 150.

The way I view it, Triple G's legendary power has slowed very little. Of his 42 wins, 37 are by KO/TKO. Sure, Canelo seemed to handle his power as well as possible the first two times, but his most recent performance, albeit in a higher weight class against Bivol, gives me pause. In their primes, these were two of the most accurate big punchers around, but as they say, Father Time is undefeated.

I can see this fight being explosive early, with Gennady trying to test the chin once again against Alvarez and see if any of the shock of his complete domination at the hands of Bivol has fully worn off. I would expect Canelo to try to extend the man who is eight years his senior, weather the early storm and take control with movement and hand speed in the middle rounds. Many believe Triple G can't win a decision in Las Vegas as the Mexican superstar is sure to have a home-ring advantage if the crowd has any say over it. GGG feels he was robbed the first two times out, so he of all people believes that narrative and would love to settle it before it potentially hits the cards.

There are potential correlation plays at hand: if you like the big betting favorite, you could shorten that price tag and take Canelo by decision at + 105. Canelo via KO/TKO/DQ is currently + 140.

If you like Triple G to finally exact his revenge, Gennady by KO/TKO/DQ is + 850. Interestingly, his price tag to finally win over the judges in Las Vegas is + 750.

Personally, I think GGG is very live in this fight. I would be more apt to play him at + 850 to finish the job himself because I am one of those who find it hard to believe he can win a decision if he wasn't granted one the first two times around. And yes, at 40, it’s difficult to believe he can outwork his 32-year-old counterpart for the majority of 12 rounds and have three judges see it that way.

So to me, the two more likely outcomes are Canelo via decision or GGG via stoppage.

Either way, it should be yet again a very compelling fight between two of the very best to do it in any era. Sign me up for that six days a week and twice on (in this case) Saturday nights! Enjoy the fight. I know I will.

 

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