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Adjusted schedules are opportunities in college basketball

February 15, 2022 06:51 PM
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I realized something Saturday morning ahead of a full day of 150 college basketball games: There were a lot more games than usual on Thursday night, meaning a lot of teams were making quick turnarounds for games on Saturday. 

While some leagues regularly schedule teams on Thursday and Saturday, others were forced to reschedule due to COVID-19 postponements. A lot of rescheduled games were pushed to February, making for a nice betting opportunity. Some teams are playing three games or more in a given week, meaning short rests, and often unequal rests for opposing teams.

Of course, I wouldn’t be presenting this theory if I didn’t have some numbers to back it up. Although it’s a somewhat small sample size by college basketball standards, I think it has merit. In essence, teams on shorter rest since the start of February are struggling. Rescheduled games and unusual rest periods are a break from routine, and that performance level can vary greatly in these circumstances.

The system reads as follows: Since the beginning of February, teams that played just two days earlier, or are on a back-to-back, are 37-47 SU and 32-49-3 ATS (39.5%) against opponents that were on a longer-rest scenario.

Included in those 84 games are 18 upsets, so there’s something to be said for moneyline betting as well. Oregon fell victim in this spot Saturday, losing as 14.5-point favorites at home to Cal. The results have actually been worse for home teams in these spots, as hosts on short rest are 14-25-2 ATS (35.9%) in this sample.

It’s a fairly simple system but has produced a win rate of more than 60% through Sunday. You’ll see below there are 57 games meeting the criteria from Feb. 14-22. I encourage you to track these games and bet them if the system continues to produce and/or you feel confident with the logic.

Schedules are subject to change, so please confirm the rest days before investing:

Monday, Feb. 14

— Southern Utah (2 days) at N. Colorado (4 days)

— W. Kentucky (2 days) at Southern Miss (4 days)

Tuesday, Feb. 15

— George Washington (3 days) at Duquesne (1 day) 

— Iona (2 days) at Saint Peter’s (4 days)

— N. Iowa (2 days) at Illinois State (3 days)

Wednesday, Feb. 16

— Boston (4 days) at Holy Cross (2 days)

— Colgate (2 days) at Army (4 days)

— Georgetown (2 days) at Marquette (4 days)

— La Salle (4 days) at Saint Louis (2 days)

— Loyola of Maryland (4 days) at Lafayette (2 days) 

— Maine (3 days) at Hartford (2 days) 

— Manhattan (3 days) at Fairfield (2 days) 

— Massachusetts (4 days) at St. Bonaventure (2 days) 

— Navy (4 days) at American (2 days) 

— Stony Brook (3 days) at UMBC (2 days) 

Thursday, Feb. 17

— Hawaii (5 days) at UC San Diego (2 days)

— Wichita St. (5 days) at Cincinnati (2 days)

— Colorado (2 days) at Cal (5 days)

— Creighton (3 days) at DePaul (2 days)

— Delaware (3 days) at Elon (2 days)

— Fairleigh Dickinson (5 days) at Merrimack (2 days)

— Colorado St. (4 days) at New Mexico (2 days)

— Oregon St. (2 days) at Arizona (5 days)

— E. Carolina (5 days) at S. Florida (2 days)

— Wagner (5 days) at Sacred Heart (2 days)

— San Francisco (2 days) at Saint Mary’s (5 days)

Friday, Feb. 18

— Saint Peter’s (3 days) at Fairfield (2 days)

— Missouri (3 days) at Mississippi St. (2 days)

— Butler (3 days) at St. John’s (2 days) 

Saturday, Feb. 19

— BYU (7 days) at Saint Mary’s (2 days)

— Colorado St. (2 days) at UNLV (3 days)

— DePaul (2 days) at Seton Hall (3 days)

— Hampton (3 days) at Longwood (2 days)

— Hawaii (2 days) at UC Irvine (4 days)

— High Point (2 days) at Radford (3 days)

— Houston Baptist (7 days) at Nicholls St. (2 days)

— Loyola Marymount (2 days) at Pacific(4 days)

— McNeese St. (2 days) at New Orleans (7 days)

— Miami of Ohio (4 days) at N. Illinois (2 days)

— Montana St. (2 days) at Southern Utah (5 days)

— Murray St. (2 days) at UT Martin (3 days)

— Northwestern (3 days) at Minnesota (2 days)

— Pepperdine (3 days) at Portland (2 days)

— Sam Houston St. (2 days) at Texas Rio Grande Valley (3 days)

— Santa Clara (2 days) at Gonzaga (3 days)

— SE Missouri St. (2 days) at Morehead St. (3 days)

— Tulsa (5 days) at S. Florida (2 days) 

— W. Michigan (4 days) at Buffalo (2 days)

Sunday, Feb. 20

— Fairfield (2 days) at Iona (5 days)

— Providence (5 days) at Butler (2 days)

— Quinnipiac (7 days) at Marist (2 days)

— Rider (2 days) at Manhattan (4 days)

Monday, Feb. 21

— Southern Utah (2 days) at N. Arizona (4 days)

Tuesday, Feb. 22

— Illinois State (1 day) at S. Illinois (3 days)

— New Mexico (2 days) at Utah St. (3 days)

— Siena (2 days) at Monmouth (4 days)

— Tennessee (3 days) at Missouri (2 days)

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