3 NFL Week 15 matchups drawing early sharp action

The Eagles kept their playoff hopes alive last night by beating the Giants 23-17 on Monday Night Football. Philadelphia trailed 17-3 at halftime and reached plus 300 on the live line before eventually winning in overtime. However, Eli Manning and the G-Men covered the spread as 9-point underdogs. Road dogs are now 75-49 ATS (60.5%) on the season. 

Sharps cashed the windy, divisional under without a sweat. The total opened at 47 and smart money knocked it down to 45. Wind speeds averaged 13-15 MPH at Lincoln Financial Field. Windy divisional unders 10 MPH or more are now 8-2 (80%) this season and 184-121 (60.3%) since 2003 according to Bet Labs Sports. Prime-time unders are now 27-16 (63%) on the season.

Tuesday's betting slate features 4 NBA games, 12 NHL games and 23 College Basketball games. For an updated betting breakdown of Tuesday's action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Now let's take a look at a handful of NFL Week 15 games already getting hit with sharp action.

Chicago Bears (7-6) at Green Bay Packers (10-3) 

 

This NFC North divisional showdown features one team all but certain to make the playoffs and another living on a postseason prayer. The Bears started the season 3-1 then dropped four straight and were left for dead with a 3-5 record. But Mitchell Trubisky has turned it around and Chicago has bounced back, winning three in a row and four of their last five, most recently upsetting the Cowboys 31-24 as 3-point home dogs last Thursday night. Chicago is plus 11 in point differential, averaging 18.69 PPG on offense and allowing 17.85 PPG on defense. The Packers lead the division and are tied for the 2nd-best record in the NFL. Green Bay is riding a two-game winning streak, most recently defeating the Redskins 20-15 but failing to cover as 13-point favorites. The Packers are plus 39 in point differential, averaging 23.77 PPG on offense and allowing 20.77 PPG on defense. 

This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 5-point home favorite (some books opened closer to Packers -7). Sharps immediately pounced on Chicago getting the points, driving this line down to 4.5. The Bears have value as a road divisional dog (22-15 ATS, 59% this season), a short road dog plus 6 or less (49-35 ATS, 58%) and a dog with a low total. Chicago also enjoy extra rest, having last played on Dec. 5 while the Packers played Dec. 8. The Bears are 4-9 ATS while the Packers are 8-5 ATS. Historically, it's been profitable to back "bad" ATS teams against "good" ATS teams as they are undervalued and recipients of heavy public bias and shaded lines. The total is 41. December divisional unders are 7-4 (64%) this season and 57% since 2005. The forecast calls for frigid temperatures in the 10-15 degree range with 8-10 MPH winds. The under is 8-5 in Bears games this season and 7-6 in Packers games. 

Los Angeles Rams (8-5) at Dallas Cowboys (6-7)

 

Talk about two teams trending in opposite directions. The Rams have won two in a row, including last week's clutch 28-12 win over the divisional rival Seahawks as 1-point favorites. Los Angeles remains in playoff contention, but must win out in order to secure a spot in the postseason (currently the 7th seed). The Rams are plus 49 in point differential, averaging 23.92 PPG on offense and allowing 20.15 PPG on defense. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are imploding. Dallas has lost three in a row and four of their last five, most recently falling to the Bears 31-24 as 3-point favorites. The Cowboys are plus 67 in point differential, averaging 25.69 PPG on offense and allowing 20.54 PPG on defense. Luckily for Dallas they play in the putrid NFC East. If the playoffs started today, the Cowboys would be in as the divisional winners. However, Dallas must continue to win in order to stave off the Eagles (both 6-7 but Dallas holds the head-to-head tiebreaker).

This line opened with the Cowboys listed as 3-point home favorites. Pros and Joes have immediately pounded the Rams getting the points, which has dropped this line all the way down to Dallas -1 or even a pick'em. Sharps have also gotten down on the total. It opened at 48 and has been bet up to 49, signaling smart money on the over. The Rams are 9-4 to the under this season but the Cowboys are 8-5 to the over. 

Buffalo Bills (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

 

This Sunday Night Football showdown shaping up to be a classic Pros vs Joes showdown. If the playoffs started today, these two teams would both be in the playoffs with the Bills as the 5th seed and the Steelers as the 6th seed. Buffalo fell to the Ravens 24-17 last week as 6.5-point dogs, snapping a three-game winning streak. The Bills are plus 62 in point differential, averaging 21.08 PPG on offense while giving up only 16.31 PPG on defense. Pittsburgh's turnaround has been nothing short of remarkable. The Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 and started the season 1-4. But now Pittsburgh has won seven of their last eight games, including the last three in a row. Last week, the Steelers beat the Cardinals 23-17 as 2.5-point favorites. Pittsburgh is plus 17 in point differential, averaging 19.92 PPG on offense while giving up 18.62 PPG on defense. 

The line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public can't believe the Steelers are favored and more than three-out-of-four bets are grabbing the points with Buffalo. However, sharps are fading the trendy dog and hammering the Steelers, pushing the line up to -2 or even -2.5 at some books. Pittsburgh has rare contrarian home favorite value in a prime-time game. The total opened at 37 and has fallen slightly to 36.5. Prime-time unders are 27-16 (63%) this season. Both teams have been incredibly profitable to the under (10-3). 

More early sharp action

Texans-Titans over 48.5 to 50

Raiders -5.5 to -6.5 vs Jaguars

Browns-Cardinals over 46.5 to 48

Vikings-Chargers under 45.5 to 44.5

Seahawks -5.5 to -6 at Panther

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