2022 NCAA tournament: The games that fit the trends

March 17, 2022 04:51 PM
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In this report, I’ll be pulling some information from VSiN’s NCAA Tournament special sections that just went out and then listing the games that fit the trends. 

Let’s start with some of the key conference angles. All of the trends listed include numbers only from NCAA Tournament games:

Best bets for every March Madness game

ACC

— ACC teams are just 12-18 SU and 8-21-1 ATS (27.6%) versus SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament since 1998. Eighteen of the last 26 NCAA Tournament matchups between ACC and SEC teams went Under the total (69.2%).

Qualifying games: Potential ND-Alabama first-round matchup, potential Miami-Auburn second-round matchup.

— ACC-Pac 12 games have gone Under at a 12-3-1 (80%) rate since 2003.

Qualifying game: Miami-USC.

— ACC teams are just 25-45-1 ATS (35.7%) as favorites of 5 points or fewer since 1998.

Qualifying game: UNC-Marquette.

— ACC teams are 33-3 SU but 12-24 ATS (33.3%) as double-digit favorites.

Qualifying game: Duke-Fullerton.

— ACC double-digit seeds are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) since 2012.

Qualifying teams: Miami, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech.

— ACC No. 2 seeds are 8-26-1 ATS (23.5%) since 2001.

Qualifying game: Duke-Fullerton.

America East

— America East teams are 10-3 ATS (76.9%) since 2011.

Qualifying game: Vermont-Arkansas.

— America East teams are 14-7-1 to the Under (66.7%) since 2003.

Qualifying game: Vermont-Arkansas.

American Athletic

— Versus non-power conference foes, American Athletic teams are 10-4 to the Under (71.4%) in the last 14.

Qualifying games: Houston-UAB and Memphis-Boise State.

Atlantic 10

— Underdogs are 10-2 ATS (83.3%) in the last 12 Atlantic 10-Big East matchups.

Qualifying game: Potential Richmond-Providence second-round matchup.

— Favorites are on a 16-2 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge in Atlantic 10 games since 2015, including 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven.

Qualifying teams: Davidson and Richmond (both underdogs).

Atlantic Sun

— Atlantic Sun teams are on a 10-3 ATS (76.9%) run since 2013.

Qualifying game: Jacksonville State-Auburn.

Big 12

— Favorites are 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS (68.8%) in the last 16 Big 12-Big Ten matchups.

Qualifying games: Potential Iowa State-Wisconsin, Texas Tech-Michigan State, Texas-Purdue second-round matchups. 

— Big 12 underdogs of 2.5 points or more are 15-59 SU and 31-42-1 ATS (42.5%) since 1998.

Qualifying game: Iowa State-LSU. 

— Big 12 favorites of 7 points or more are on a 17-1 SU and 12-6 ATS (66.7%) run.

Qualifying games: Baylor-Norfolk State, Kansas-First Four winner, Texas Tech-Montana State.

Big East

— Big East favorites laying 5 points or fewer are 37-39 SU and 31-45 ATS (40.8%) since 2004.

Qualifying games: Providence-South Dakota State, Seton Hall-TCU.

— Big East teams in 8-9 games are just 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS (14.3%) since 2005.

Qualifying games: Creighton-San Diego State, Marquette-North Carolina, Seton Hall-TCU.

— Big East teams are on a 7-1 SU and ATS (87.5%) run against Mountain West teams.

Qualifying game: Creighton-San Diego State.

— Big East teams are on a 12-6 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge versus Big 12 teams.

Qualifying game: Seton Hall-TCU.

— Big East-ACC matchups are 11-4 to the Over (73.3%) since 2013.

Qualifying game: Marquette-North Carolina.

— Favorites are 21-8 ATS (72.4%) in the last 29 Big East games.

Qualifying teams: Connecticut, Seton Hall, Providence, and Villanova (all favorites).

— Favorites are on an 18-5 SU and ATS (78.3%) run when Big East teams play non-major conferences since 2015.

Qualifying teams: Connecticut, Providence and Villanova (favorites) and Creighton (underdog).

Big Sky

— Big Sky teams are just 1-20 SU and 6-15 ATS (28.6%) since 2001, including 3-14 ATS (17.6%) as an underdog of fewer than 20 points.

Qualifying game: Montana State-Texas Tech.

Big South

— Matchups with Big South teams versus major-conference teams are 15-3 to the Under (83.3%).

Qualifying game: Longwood-Tennessee.

Big Ten

— Big Ten No. 4 seeds are 3-10-1 ATS (23.1%) in their last 14 games.

Qualifying game: Illinois-Chattanooga.

— Big Ten double-digit favorites are 48-3 SU and 28-19-4 ATS (59.6%) since 1998 (1-3 ATS last year).

Qualifying games: Purdue-Yale, Iowa-Richmond.

— Big Ten teams are on a 9-4 SU and 11-1-1 ATS (91.7%) run versus SEC foes.

Qualifying games: Potential Rutgers-Alabama first-round matchup and Michigan-Tennessee, Wisconsin-LSU second-round matchups.

— Big Ten teams are just 4-16 ATS (20%) versus Big 12 and Pac 12 foes since 2015.

Qualifying games: Potential Indiana-UCLA second-round matchup.

Big West

— Big West teams are just 4-17 SU and 7-13-1 ATS (35%) in their last 21 games. Big West underdogs getting 6.5 points or more are 1-19 SU and 6-13-1 ATS (31.6%) since 1998.

Qualifying game: Fullerton-Duke.

Colonial Athletic

— Colonial Athletic underdogs versus major-conference teams are on a 23-7-2 ATS (76.7%) run.

Qualifying game: Delaware-Villanova.

Conference USA

— Conference USA teams are just 6-15 SU and 7-14 ATS (33.3%) since 2009. C-USA single-digit underdogs are on a 4-22 SU and 5-21 ATS (19.2%) slide.

Qualifying game: UAB-Houston.

Horizon

— Line placement has been key in Horizon League games. Horizon underdogs of 8 points or more are 0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS since 2002. The rest of Horizon teams are 19-10 SU and 21-8 ATS (72.4%) in the span.

Qualifying game: Wright State is favored over Bryant in the First Four.

Ivy

— Ivy League underdogs of 6 points or more are just 1-17 SU and 7-11 ATS (38.9%) since 2000. Those games are 15-3 to the Under (83.3%).

Qualifying game: Yale-Purdue.

Metro Atlantic

— Metro Atlantic Athletic teams are on an 0-13 SU and 4-9 ATS (30.8%) slide (they have covered their last two).

Qualifying game: Saint Peters-Kentucky.

Mid-American

— Mid-American Conference teams are 13-5 ATS (72.2%) in their last 18 games as a No. 13 seed or lower but 9-11 ATS (45%) with higher seeds in the span. Mid-American Conference underdogs of 6.5 point or more are on a 10-3 ATS (76.9%) run in their last 13 games.

Qualifying game: Akron-UCLA.

Mid-Eastern

— MEAC teams are on a 4-13 SU and 5-12 ATS (29.4%) slide.

Qualifying game: Norfolk State-Baylor.

Missouri Valley

— Missouri Valley Conference teams are on a 20-12 SU and 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%) run since 2013 and are 18-7-1 ATS (72%) against power-conference schools. As underdogs or pick’ems, MVC teams are on a 12-2 ATS (85.7%) run.

Qualifying game: Loyola Chicago-Ohio State.

Mountain West

— Mountain West teams are just 21-49 SU and 22-45-3 ATS (32.8%) since 2001, including five straight outright and ATS defeats.

Qualifying games: Boise State-Memphis, Colorado State-Michigan, San Diego State-Creighton, Wyoming-Indiana.

— Mountain West underdogs are just 8-34 SU and 11-28-3 ATS (28.2%) since 2001.

Qualifying teams: Boise State, Colorado State and Wyoming.

— Mountain West teams are 9-39 SU and 12-34-2 ATS (26.1%) versus major-conference teams since 2000.

Qualifying games: Colorado State-Michigan, San Diego State-Creighton, Wyoming-Indiana.

Ohio Valley

— Ohio Valley are 12-8 ATS (60%) in their last 20 games but 4-23 outright since 1998.

Qualifying game: Murray State-San Francisco.

Pac-12

— Pac-12 teams are on a 15-3 ATS (83.3%) run versus Big 12 and Big East teams since 2013.

Qualifying game: Potential Arizona-Seton Hall second-round matchup.

— Pac-12 teams are on a 20-6 ATS (76.9%) run in second-round games.

Qualifying teams: Potential for Arizona, UCLA and USC in second round

— Pac-12 underdogs are 35-16 ATS (68.6%) since 2011.

Qualifying team: Potential for USC in second-round matchup versus Auburn.

SEC

— SEC teams are on a 12-5 ATS (70.6%) run versus Pac-12 teams.

Qualifying game: Potential Auburn-USC second-round matchup.

— SEC No. 4 seeds are 12-18 ATS (40%) since 2000 with the Under going 22-7-1 (75.9%) in those games.

Qualifying team: Arkansas (versus Vermont in first round).

— SEC underdogs are 24-12 ATS (66.7%) in their last 36 games.

Qualifying games: Wait for the second round. All six SEC teams are favored in their first-round games.

Southern

— Southern Conference underdogs of fewer than 15 points are on a 14-5 ATS (73.7%) run.

Qualifying game: Chattanooga-Illinois.

Summit

— Summit League teams are on a 7-1-1 ATS (87.5%) run, including a 3-0 ATS sweep by Oral Roberts last year.

Qualifying game: South Dakota State-Providence.

Sun Belt

— Sun Belt teams are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games, which all went Under. Sun Belt teams seeded 14-16 are on a 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) slide since 1999, but as 13 or better they’re 9-4 ATS (69.2%) in the span.

Qualifying game: No. 16 Georgia State versus No.1 Gonzaga.

WAC

— WAC teams are 2-21 SU and 8-15 ATS (34.8%) since 2004. They’re also on a 15-game losing streak versus power-conference schools, going 5-10 ATS (33.3%).

Qualifying game: New Mexico State-Connecticut.

West Coast

— WCC teams are 15-7 SU but 7-15 ATS (31.8%) against non-majors since 2004.

Qualifying games: Gonzaga-Georgia State, San Francisco-Murray State and a potential Saint Mary’s-Wyoming matchup.

Round by Round

First Four

— In play-in games with spreads of 3.5 points or fewer, totals are on a run of 20-10-1 to the Under (66.7%).

Qualifying games: Both on Wednesday night.

— Games featuring seeds of 12 or higher are on a run of 13-5 to the Under (72.2%).

Qualifying game: Notre Dame-Rutgers.

— Games with totals of 139 or more are on a run of 12-6 to the Under (67%).

Qualifying game: Bryant-Wright State.

— Favorites of 3 points or more are 18-11 SU but 11-17-1 ATS (39.3%) in the last 29 games.

Qualifying game: Wright State versus Bryant (+ 3.5).

First Round

— Teams that didn’t make the championship game of their conference tournament are on a slide of 28-51-2 ATS (35.4%) versus conference champions.

Qualifying games (CONFERENCE CHAMPION UPPERCASE): Arkansas-VERMONT, Kentucky-SAINT PETERS, Baylor-NORFOLK STATE, Connecticut-NEW MEXICO STATE, Wisconsin-COLGATE, Providence-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, Illinois-CHATTANOOGA, MURRAY STATE-San Francisco.

— Power-conference schools that lost SU and ATS in their conference-championship game are on a 52-14 SU and 37-27-2 ATS (57.8%) run.

Qualifying games: PURDUE-Yale, DUKE-Fullerton, CREIGHTON-San Diego State, UCLA-Akron.

— Favorites of 1 to 3 are 44-50 SU and 33-57-4 ATS (36.7%) since 2009.

Qualifying favorites as of Tuesday: Memphis, Michigan State, North Carolina, Texas, Murray State, Seton Hall, Michigan, San Diego State, Providence, USC.

— No. 2 seeds favored by 17 points or more are just 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) since 2005.

Qualifying games: Kentucky-Saint Peters, Duke-Fullerton.

— In games with No. 3 seeds favored by single digits, the Under is on a 19-6 (76%) run since 2003.

Qualifying game: Wisconsin-Colgate.

— No. 4 seeds are on a 10-17-1 ATS (37%) slide.

Qualifying game: UCLA-Akron.

— No. 12 seeds are on a 29-16-3 ATS (64.4%) run since 2009 versus No. 5s, and they’re 14-6-2 ATS (70%) as underdogs of 6 points or more.

Qualifying teams: New Mexico State, Richmond and UAB are all getting at least 6 points.

— No. 6 seeds are 23-25 SU and 18-29-1 ATS (38.3%) in their last 48 first-round games, with the Under going 31-16-1 (66%).

Qualifying games: Alabama-ND/Rutgers, Colorado State-Michigan, LSU-Iowa State, Texas-Virginia Tech.

— No. 6 seeds playing as an underdog or pick’em are 4-10 SU and ATS (28.6%) since 2001.

Qualifying game: Colorado State-Michigan.

— Non-majors playing as No. 7 seeds are 20-9-1 ATS (69%) since 2004.

Qualifying team: Murray State.

— In 8-9 matchups, the Over is on a 14-3 (82.4%) run.

Qualifying games: North Carolina-Marquette, Seton Hall-TCU, San Diego State-Creighton, Boise State-Memphis.

Second Round

— Double-digit favorites are 46-2 SU and 31-17 ATS (64.5%) since 2001.

Potential qualifying team: Gonzaga.

— No. 2 seeds are just 12-20-1 ATS (37.5%) in their last 33 games.

Potential qualifying teams: Villanova, Duke, Kentucky, Auburn.

— Nos. 4-6 seeds are on a covering surge in the second round. Entering 2020, No. 4s were 14-8 ATS, No. 5s 17-6 ATS and No. 6s 18-8 ATS.

Qualifying teams: TBD.

— No. 10 seeds are 4-11 SU but 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) since 2011.

Potential qualifying teams: Davidson, Loyola Chicago, Miami, San Francisco.

— In second-round games between two double-digit seeds, the higher seed is 12-2 SU and ATS since 2001, playing each time as the favorite. Alternatively, when facing seeds in the 5-7 range, double-digit seeds are just 3-17 SU and 5-13-2 ATS (27.8%).

Qualifying games: TBD.

— No. 14 seeds that pulled off upsets in the first round are 0-10 SU and ATS since 1998.

Potential qualifying teams: Montana State, Longwood, Colgate, Yale.

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