2022 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds and best bets

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

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The Super Bowl of Gluttony returns to its rightful place and time, as The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest will be at Coney Island on Monday July 4. Because of COVID in 2020 and capacity restrictions in 2021, the contest looked a little different, but we’re back to normal this year and excitement is off the charts for 10 minutes of competitive eating in both the men’s and women’s divisions.

Men’s Hot Dog Contest

The main event of the Hot Dog Contest is Monday at Noon ET on ESPN News. Joey Chestnut is -3000, while the Field is + 1000 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Joey Chestnut

Chestnut looks for his 15th career victory. He won the men’s event from 2011-14 and is riding a seven-year winning streak into this year’s competition. Matt Stonie’s stunning upset in 2015 is the lone blemish in Chestnut’s record, which also includes wins from 2007-10 when the competition was mixed between men and women.

Chestnut’s Over/Under prop is set at 74.5 dogs (over -150), which would be short of the world record he set last year with 76. He had 75 in 2020, but the event was held indoors due to COVID-19 and the outdoor conditions definitely have an impact on consumption.

A simple Yes/No prop for Chestnut to break the record of 76 is priced at + 185 for Yes and -245 for No.

The Field

The field includes Nick Wehry, who is + 200 on the individual odds to either win or finish second to Chestnut. He joined The Night Cap on Friday night to talk about his chances and his mindset.

The “favorite” outside of Chestnut is Geoffrey Esper at -140, with James Webb at + 800, Gideon Oji at + 800 and “Other” at + 1000.

Here are the Over/Under lines listed for the other competitors:

Esper: 52.5 (-115/-115)

Wehry: 49.5 (-110/-120)

Oji: 41.5 (-105/-125)

Women’s Hot Dog Contest

It seems like we could call the women’s competition brunch because it begins at 10:45 a.m. ET on Monday. ESPN3 will carry coverage of that, so you’ll have to watch it online exclusively.

Miki Sudo is -5000, with the Field at + 1500 at DraftKings.

Miki Sudo

If you thought Chestnut was a big favorite, Sudo is an even bigger favorite on the women’s side. Sudo was the winner every year from 2014-20, but she was pregnant for last year’s competition and could not compete. Michelle Lesco won with 30.75 hot dogs consumed, 18 fewer than Sudo’s winning mark in 2020.

However, we should put an asterisk next to Sudo’s 2020 performance. Her previous career high was 41 dogs back in 2017. As mentioned, the 2020 contest was inside, so the conditions were much better for the eaters.

Sudo’s Over/Under total is 46.5 with -140 on the under. That seems like the best bet of the weekend.

VSiN Coverage

Keep it tuned to VSiN throughout the weekend and on Monday morning, as we’ll have more analysis and coverage of the Hot Dog Eating Contest, including one of our own on My Guys in the Desert (5 p.m. ET) with host Stormy Buonantony participating against another TBD VSiN personality.

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