1/ST BET Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Saratoga

By Jerry Shottenkirk  (Xpressbet analyst) 

July 24, 2020 08:31 PM

Give me two Browns, two Makers, a Pletcher and a Mott, and I’ll show you Saratoga’s Grade 2 Bernard Baruch Handicap at 1 1-16th miles on the turf.

If it’s New York, there’s a chance of a Chad Brown 1-2 finish. However, judging by pace and form, the Baruch could go a number of ways, which is why four horses in the six-horse field are used in this week’s suggested Late Pick 4 from upstate. The Baruch is the third leg of the Pick 4, which runs from races 7-10.

Here’s a look at the Pick 4 races, along with a suggested $72 ticket. We scored on the ticket last Sunday and hope to keep the momentum:

Race 7 (4:40 p.m. ET, allowance)

COMPETITIVE SAINT moves over to the turf after one start, which was a good one as he took the measure of a Gulfstream Park maiden field by 1.5 lengths. The Royal Academy line on the dam’s side indicates he should like the grass. AMERICAN MANDATE has been on the board just once, and that was a good once as he closed for second on a yielding course. He has just one win in 15 starts, but he could be a better runner on turf and has the speed to be a factor from shortly after the start. CRYOGENIC was up in time against Florida-breds at Gulfstream and has found an open-company spot that shouldn’t be overwhelming to him.

Race 8 (5:14 p.m. ET, allowance)

Anyone who saw HAPPY SAVER’s only race is ready for his return. The Todd Pletcher-trained Super Saver colt was brilliant as he put away speedy rivals and won by 5.5 widening lengths. He stretches out to 1 1-8 miles and gets the hot-riding Irad Ortiz. HIGH AMPLITUDE has always been closer at the finish than he was at the furlong pole, which could indicate he could really enjoy his first nine-furlong run. AMANI’S EAGLE won going 1 3-16th miles and will be very close to the pace. BEAU LUMINARIE was second in his last two, including once at this distance. A threat to lead every step.

Race 9 (5:46 p.m. ET, G2 Bernard Baruch Handicap)

They took their sweet time getting GOOD GOVERNANCE to the races, but he’s won two of three and despite not having the background of the others must be respected. He coasted against allowance company last out and likely can dig down deeper. SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN can run on anything and most of his turf efforts have been mighty good, including a third-place showing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf two years ago. OLYMPICO ran fifth as the favorite in the 2019 edition of the Baruch and makes his first since October. As a closer he’s at the mercy the pace but is capable of a big late run. HALLADAY two three straight at Gulfstream but also has been able to run on other courses, including this one. In an allowance here last year, he lost a photo and is running much better than he did in 2019. We all know how good jockey Luis Saez is on the front end, and they’ll be looking at the back of silks, maybe for the entire distance.

Race 10 (6:18 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)

ECONOMIC POLICY tried maiden specials at Tampa and came up with a second on one of those occasions. He’s offered for a claiming price and gets blinkers for Brown. TURN OF EVENTS drops in price from last time, when he fourth at Belmont. This is the softest spot he’s seen and will be a strong player. PRINCE OF CAPS just missed on the front end and looks to have found his price after being outrun in maiden specials.

Saratoga Late Pick 4:

7) #3 Competitive Saint, #7 American Mandate, #9 Cryogenic.

8) #2 Happy Saver, #3 High Amplitude, #4 Amani’s Eagle, #5 Beau Luminarie.

9) #2 Good Governance, #3 Somelikeithotbrown, #5 Olympico, #6 Halladay.

10) #8 Economic Policy, #10 Turn of Events, #11 Prince of Caps.

50-cent Late Pick 4: 3-7-9 with 2-3-4-5 with 2-3-5-6 with 8-10-11 ($72)

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