15 TOP NBA SCHEDULING SITUATIONS FOR 2019

By Steve Makinen  () 

From all the great feedback I got from Issue No. 8 of Point Spread Weekly last week, there were several requests to produce the same Top Scheduling Situations for the NBA that I put together for the NHL. How can I say no? In truth, I value and use this information for my own benefit as much as the readers do. One thing I value most about these top scheduling situations pieces is that they have great shelf life. Some games start this week, some go all the way through April.

Recalling the explanation for this strategy, I have always believed that in sports played with multiple games each week in an inconsistent format, how a team’s schedule lays out can have a huge impact on its performance. These sports are, of course, hockey and basketball — the NHL and NBA in particular. Some teams fare better than others in certain scheduling spots, and there are many debatable reasons for it. So just like last week, I’ve dug into my NBA database over the last two seasons to see if we want to make note of specific spots for the 2019-20 schedule.

Here are 15 top scheduling situations that have produced big profits for bettors over the last couple of seasons. I have listed all the spots in which they will apply this season. Same recommendations here: If you notice a continued pattern of winning, by all means keep playing it. If you see the pattern starting to turn, perhaps eliminate that from the list.

1. WASHINGTON is 12-1 OVER the total (92%) in the TwoDaysatHome scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season: 10.9 units, ROI: 84%, Grade - 75

Washington’s home games when well rested have been very high scoring, producing a combined total of 234.6 PPG.

11/2/19 — vs. MINNESOTA

11/20/19 — vs. SAN ANTONIO

1/20/20 — vs. DETROIT

2. DETROIT is 31-10 UNDER the total (76%) in the 4thin6Days scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season: 20.0 units, ROI: 48%, Grade - 75

Fatigue has played a part in Detroit going under the total most often in the back end of packed scheduling, as these games have produced 205.2 PPG. You’ll notice a lot of opportunities to play these games this season.

10/28/19 — vs. INDIANA

11/2/19 — vs. BROOKLYN

11/4/19 — at Washington

11/6/19 — vs. NEW YORK

11/25/19 — vs. ORLANDO

11/27/19 — at Charlotte

12/4/19 — vs. MILWAUKEE

12/6/19 — vs. INDIANA

12/21/19 — vs. CHICAGO

12/23/19 — vs. PHILADELPHIA

1/7/20 — at Cleveland

1/9/20 — vs. CLEVELAND

1/25/20 — vs. BROOKLYN

1/27/20 — vs. CLEVELAND

1/29/20 — at Brooklyn

2/3/20 — at Memphis

2/5/20 — vs. PHOENIX

2/7/20 — at Oklahoma City

2/8/20 — vs. NEW YORK

2/10/20 — vs. CHARLOTTE

2/12/20 — at Orlando

3/25/20 — vs. PORTLAND

3/27/20 — vs. LA CLIPPERS

4/14/20 — at New York

3. WASHINGTON is 3-13 ATS (19%) in the TwoDaysonRoad scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season: -11.3 units, ROI: -71%, Grade - 75

Another Washington sighting: The Wizards have struggled in a bit longer rest scenario when playing on the road, outscored 111.7-99.7 on average.

12/26/19 — at Detroit

1/15/20 — at Chicago

1/26/20 — at Atlanta

3/13/20 — at Boston

4/10/20 — at Houston

4. LA CLIPPERS are 2-10 ATS (17%) in the 4thStraightHome scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season: -9.0 units, ROI: -75%, Grade - 70

The longer the homestand, the worse the Clippers have played the last couple of seasons, although they are 6-6 outright in these contests.

11/7/19 — vs. PORTLAND

11/11/19 — vs. TORONTO

11/22/19 — vs. HOUSTON

11/24/19 — vs. NEW ORLEANS

1/10/20 — vs. GOLDEN STATE

2/5/20 — vs. MIAMI

5. PORTLAND is 3-12 ATS (20%) in the A2A b2b scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season: -10.2 units, ROI: -64%, Grade - 70

This is generally considered the toughest day-to-day scheduling scenario in the NBA, and Portland has not fared well in it.

10/28/19 — at San Antonio

11/19/19 — at New Orleans

1/18/20 — at Oklahoma City

2/12/20 — at Memphis

3/25/20 — at Detroit

3/30/20 — at Brooklyn

6. UTAH is 14-3 UNDER the total (82%) in the TwoDaysatHome scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season: 10.7 units, ROI: 63%, Grade - 70

The two-day rest scenario is a bit longer than the usual rest in the NBA, and the change in routine leads to lower scoring games in Utah, 198.1 PPG combined on this trend.

11/6/19 — vs. PHILADELPHIA

11/18/19 — vs. MINNESOTA

12/7/19 — vs. MEMPHIS

12/26/19 — vs. PORTLAND

1/25/20 — vs. DALLAS

7. MILWAUKEE is 16-4 ATS (80%) in the 3rdStraightRoad scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season: 11.6 units, ROI: 53%, Grade - 70

Milwaukee has been one of the league’s best ATS teams lately, and the strongest spot comes in one of the more difficult circumstances a team can face, a third (or more) straight road game.

11/8/19 — at Utah

11/10/19 — at Oklahoma City

11/20/19 — at Atlanta

1/10/20 — at Sacramento

1/11/20 — at Portland

3/9/20 — at Denver

4/7/20 — at Philadelphia

8. LA CLIPPERS are 7-0 ATS (100%) in the 3 Days scheduling scenario since the start of the

2017-18 season: 7.0 units, ROI: 100%, Grade - 65

We already saw a spot in which the Clippers struggle. But here is one in which they thrive, simply being well rested.

11/11/19 — vs. TORONTO

1/10/20 — vs. GOLDEN STATE

2/22/20 — vs. SACRAMENTO

9. MILWAUKEE is 7-0 UNDER the total (100%) in the 3 DaysatHome scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season: 7.0 units, ROI: 100%, Grade - 65

Off long breaks, Milwaukee has played well below its usual total pace at home, producing a combined 204.7 PPG in this trend.

11/14/19 — vs. CHICAGO

1/28/20 — vs. WASHINGTON

10. OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-7 ATS (0%) in the 4thin11 Days scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season: -7.7 units, ROI: -110%, Grade - 65

Oklahoma City clearly hasn’t played well when the routine gets thrown off by playing very irregularly.

Look to fade the Thunder out of the All-Star break again.

2/21/20 — vs. DENVER

2/23/20 — vs. SAN ANTONIO

2/25/20 — at Chicago

11. GOLDEN STATE is 8-17 ATS (32%) in the 3rdStraightHome scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season: -10.7 units, ROI: -43%, Grade - 65

Golden State has had trouble beating the Vegas numbers in the back ends of long homestands.

11/2/19 — vs. CHARLOTTE

11/4/19 — vs. PORTLAND

12/25/19 — vs. HOUSTON

12/27/19 — vs. PHOENIX

12/28/19 — vs. DALLAS

1/18/20 — vs. ORLANDO

2/25/20 — vs. SACRAMENTO

2/27/20 — vs. LA LAKERS

3/10/20 — vs. LA CLIPPERS

3/12/20 — vs. BROOKLYN

3/29/20 — vs. SAN ANTONIO

3/31/20 — vs. DENVER

12. BROOKLYN is 25-10 ATS (71%) in the OneDayonRoad scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season:

14.0 units, ROI: 40%, Grade - 65

This one-day rest scenario is the most common on the NBA schedule, and the Nets have thrived in it when playing on the road. Hopefully this continues, as we would have 27 opportunities to take advantage in 2019-20.

10/27/19 — at Memphis

11/10/19 — at Phoenix

11/12/19 — at Utah

11/14/19 — at Denver

11/16/19 — at Chicago

11/24/19 — at New York

11/27/19 — at Boston

12/6/19 — at Charlotte

12/17/19 — at New Orleans

12/19/19 — at San Antonio

12/28/19 — at Houston

12/30/19 — at Minnesota

1/6/20 — at Orlando

1/25/20 — at Detroit

2/10/20 — at Indiana

2/22/20 — at Charlotte

2/26/20 — at Washington

2/28/20 — at Atlanta

3/10/20 — at LA Lakers

3/12/20 — at Golden State

3/15/20 — at Sacramento

3/27/20 — at Orlando

4/3/20 — at Indiana

4/7/20 — at Oklahoma City

4/9/20 — at Milwaukee

4/11/20 — at Chicago

4/13/20 — at Cleveland

13. BOSTON is 10-3 ATS (77%) in the 3 Days scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season: 6.7 units, ROI: 52%, Grade - 62

The Celtics have been rejuvenated when well rested, and they will be in this scenario four times in 2019-20, starting with a big game at home against Milwaukee on Oct. 30.

10/30/19 — vs. MILWAUKEE

11/5/19 — at Cleveland

12/18/19 — at Dallas

2/21/20 — at Minnesota

14. SACRAMENTO is 21-9 UNDER the total (70%) in the 3rdStraightHome scheduling scenario since the start of the 2017-18 season: 11.1 units, ROI: 37%, Grade - 62

Longer homestands have led to lower-scoring games in Sacramento.

11/1/19 — vs. UTAH

12/28/19 — vs. PHOENIX

1/4/20 — vs. NEW ORLEANS

1/6/20 — vs. GOLDEN STATE

1/15/20 — vs. DALLAS

2/7/20 — vs. MIAMI

2/8/20 — vs. SAN ANTONIO

3/5/20 — vs. PHILADELPHIA

3/15/20 — vs. BROOKLYN

3/17/20 — vs. DALLAS

3/31/20 — vs. SAN ANTONIO

4/2/20 — vs. LA CLIPPERS

4/4/20 — vs. LA LAKERS

4/5/20 — vs. CLEVELAND

15. DETROIT is 7-0 ATS (100%) in the 4thStraightRoad scheduling scenario since the start of the

2017-18 season: 7.0 units, ROI: 88%, Grade - 59

This would seem a very difficult scheduling spot, yet the Pistons have rallied after spending lengthy spans on the road. Detroit has its longest road trip this season around the New Year’s holiday.

1/4/20 — at Golden State

1/5/20 — at LA Lakers

1/7/20 — at Cleveland

3/1/20 — at Sacramento

4/11/20 — at Dallas

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