15 MLB Extreme Stats Betting Systems

By Steve Makinen  () 

After watching the Dodgers put up double- digit runs in each game of a 3-game sweep at Colorado last weekend, I got to thinking. How could anyone bet against Los Angeles in the next game after such an explosive series of offense? As it turned out, I backed L.A. in its follow-up game, at Pittsburgh, and the bet won 5-0. The victory certainly raised my curiosity as to whether or not there were other situations of this nature that deserved more attention from a regular bettor like myself? After all, there are extreme statistical situations like this all the time over the course of a 6-month season, and you would think that they provide a team a bit of a boost from the norm, a shot of momentum if you will. Sometimes any change from the routine can make for a nice betting opportunity.

With that in mind, I thought I’d look back at the last 10 seasons of Major League Baseball and analyze the follow up game or games after a very unique performance of extreme statistics. These could include runs, hits, strikeouts, home runs, run differential, and even innings played. Going into I know that the results might not always be positive too, and would present good fade opportunities. In any case, let’s see what we can come up with in regards to MLB Extreme Stats Betting Systems, so we can put them to work for the rest of the 2018 season. Note that the data I collected was since the beginning of the 2008 season, a span of about 10 seasons.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #1 – BACK ROAD TEAMS AFTER LOSING 15 RUNS IN A GAME

Teams playing on the road in the follow up game after losing by 15 runs or more in a game are 17-11 (60.7%) for 11.2 Units. (R.O.I.: 40%)

Analysis:  This is obviously a hard one to back mentally, as a road team that just got it’s rear- end kicked isn’t the most appetizing of wagers. However, they usually bounce back well, and this system has been real hot of late, with teams on a 7-1 run over the last calendar year, including most recently Tampa Bay on May 14th, who recorded a win at Kansas City after suffering a 17-1 shellacking at Baltimore the prior day.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #2 – BACK ROAD TEAMS AFTER SCORING 12 RUNS AS FAVORITES IN NON-DIVISIONAL GAMES

Teams playing as road favorites or pick em’s versus non-divisional foes in the follow up game after scoring 12 runs or more in a game are 107- 63 (62.9%) for 24.8 Units. (R.O.I.: 14.6%)

Analysis:  There are obviously far more games in this system than there were in #1, and the R.O.I. is down a bit, but even still, a 14.6% R.O.I. on any betting system should be given good consideration. Look for good road teams coming off high scoring games, assuming they aren’t playing divisional foes, as the results in that case drop significantly.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #3 – BACK ROAD TEAMS IN DIVISIONAL GAMES AFTER A VERY POOR HITTING GAME

Teams playing on the road versus divisional foes in the follow up game after batting .050 or worse are 29-19 (60.4%) for 16.7 Units. (R.O.I.: 34.7%)

Analysis:  The teams in this system also figure to be among those that bettors would be least likely to back, as all of the 48 teams in the sample had 0 or 1 hit in the prior contest. However, against divisional foes on the road, these teams have been able to quickly flush the bad mojo from that prior poor hitting contest.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #4 – FADE BIG HOME FAVORITES COMING OFF HUGE HITTING PERFORMANCE

Home favorites of -175 or higher are just 15-15  (50%) in the follow up game after hitting .463 or better in the prior contest. The net result has been -15.3 Units (R.O.I.: -51.0%)

Analysis:  The teams in this system seemed to be getting overpriced by oddsmakers, both because they are at home, and because they are coming off a huge hitting performance. A letdown is the natural result.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #5 – BACK SMALL ROAD UNDERDOGS VERSUS NON-DIVISIONAL FOES AFTER A BIG EXTRA BASE HITS GAME

Road under dogs of 125 or lower are 32-23  (58.2%) versus non-divisional foes in the follow up game after collecting 8 extra base hits in the prior contest. The net result has been 13.3 Units (R.O.I.: 24.2%)

Analysis:  It seems so far that hitting is more contagious when teams are on the road. As illustrated by this system, underpriced road teams ride the momentum of a big extra-base hitting game into the next contest, provided it’s not against a divisional foe.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #6 – BACK TEAMS THAT HIT FOUR OR MORE HOME RUNS IN THE PRIOR CONTEST

Teams that hit four or more home runs in a contest are 756-665(53.2%) in the follow up MLB game since 2008. The net result has been 16.05 Units (R.O.I.: 1.1%)

Analysis:  I don’t show you this particular system for its glowing R.O.I., rather as a sign of a basic principle you can consider when betting. The average baseball game over the last 10 seasons produces a R.O.I. of -2.8% when both teams are considered. Teams that hit zero home runs the prior game are -3.0% R.O.I, teams that hit one HR are -2.0% R.O.I., teams that hit two HR’s are -4.4% R.O.I., and teams that hit three HR’s in the prior game are -3.2% R.O.I.  From there however, every count of four HR’s or more in the prior game produces a positive R.O.I. for bettors backing that team in the follow up game. It seems that hitting many home runs does carry positive momentum into follow-up games.

If you’d like to break this down even further, this is a rare system where betting home teams has proven more fruitful. In fact, home teams that hit four or more home runs in the prior game have produced an R.O.I. of 2.0%. Going even deeper, the best betting system of home teams coming off big home runs games has come against interleague competition, as these teams have gone 55-35 (61.1%) for 9.5 Units (R.O.I: 10.7%).

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #7 – BACK TEAMS THAT DIDN’T STRIKE OUT IN THE PRIOR CONTEST

Teams that avoiding striking out offensively in any game are 39-24 (61.9%) in the follow up MLB game since 2008. The net result has been 16.15 Units (R.O.I.: 25.6%)

Analysis:  In today’s day and age of baseball, it seems that teams not striking out in a game would be extremely rare, and it is, as it has happened just 63 times since the start of the ’08 season. It happened four times a year ago, but has yet to occur in 2018. However, with a R.O.I. of 25.6%, it pays to watch for these teams, as they are a solid bet in the next contest.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #8 – FADE TEAMS THAT STRUCK OUT 16 TIMES IN THE PRIOR CONTEST

Teams that struck out 16 or more times in the prior contest are 193-243 (44.3%) in the follow up MLB game since 2008. The net result has been -43.45 Units (R.O.I.: -10%)

Analysis:  As opposed to the strike out system in #7, this one occurs much more frequently. In all, 436 teams have struck out 16 or more times in the last 10 seasons, including 31 as of June 7th of this year. These teams are not good bets in the next contest, producing a -10% R.O.I. These teams are nearly equally ineffective at home as on the road as well.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #9 – FADE HOME TEAMS THAT LEFT ZERO OR ONE MAN ON BASE IN THE PRIOR CONTEST

Home teams that had one or fewer men left on base in the prior game are just 103-108 (48.8%) in the follow up MLB contest since 2008. The net result has been -26.1 Units (R.O.I.: -12.4%)

Analysis:  Teams leaving very few men on base in a game probably did so because they didn’t have many GET ON base. Poor hitting doesn’t carry over well as we’ve already seen, thus fading home teams that left one or fewer men on base in the prior contest is a sound strategy.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #10 – BACK TEAMS WHOSE BULLPEN IS FRESH AND FADE TEAMS WHOSE BULLPEN WAS OVERUSED IN PRIOR GAME

Teams whose bullpens went less than an inning in the prior contest are 917-858 (51.7%) in the next MLB game since 2008. The net result has been 12.4 Units (R.O.I.: 6.9%)

Teams whose bullpen was utilized for more than 6 innings in the prior contest are 1135-1152 (49.6%) in the next MLB game since ’08. The net result has been -99.1 Units (R.O.I.: -4.3%)

Analysis:  Like the home run system before, these are also not real eye catching when you consider the R.O.I values alone. However, these contradict each other almost directly, and should signal to the bettor the importance of monitoring bullpen usage. The bottom line, teams with fresh bullpens are more profitable wagers than those with overused bullpens.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #11 – BACK TEAMS WHOSE BULLPEN IS FRESH AND FADE TEAMS WHOSE BULLPEN WAS OVERUSED IN PRIOR GAME

Teams whose bullpens went less than an inning in the prior contest are 917-858 (51.7%) in the next MLB game since 2008. The net result has been 12.4 Units (R.O.I.: 6.9%)

Teams whose bullpen was utilized for more than 6 innings in the prior contest are 1135-1152 (49.6%) in the next MLB game since ’08. The net result has been -99.1 Units (R.O.I.: -4.3%)

Analysis:  Like the home run system before, these are also not real eye catching when you consider the R.O.I values alone. However, these contradict each other almost directly, and should signal to the bettor the importance of monitoring bullpen usage. The bottom line, teams with fresh bullpens are more profitable wagers than those with overused bullpens.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #12 – BACK TEAMS THAT ALLOWED 17 RUNS IN PRIOR GAME

Teams that allowed 17 or more runs in the prior contest are surprisingly a good bet in the next, having gone 59-50 (54.1%) since 2008. The net result has been 16.85 Units (R.O.I.: 15.5%)

Analysis: Teams that allow 17 or more runs in a game would be considered poison by most bettors, however, they actually turn out to be a very solid wager in the next game. This has happened three times in 2018, with the run yielding teams turning around and winning twice.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #13 – BACK TEAMS THAT JUST THREW A NO-HITTER

Teams that allowed zero hits in the prior contest come back strong in the next, with a record of 24-16 (60%) since 2008. The net result has been 7.55 Units (R.O.I.: 18.9%)

Analysis:  No hitters are clearly a momentum builder for teams, not an emotional letdown as some bettors might make them out to be.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #14 – BACK HOME TEAMS THAT WERE SHUTOUT IN BACK-TO-BACK GAMES

Home teams that got shut out in back-to-back games come back strong in the next, with a record of 56-34 (62.2%) since 2008. The net result has been 21.25 Units (R.O.I.: 23.6%)

Analysis:  Teams coming off back-to-back shutout losses are obvious candidates for underpricing by oddsmakers. These teams, when playing at home, come back quite well however, returning nearly 25% on investment for bettors. Incidentally, if you add a third straight shutout to this system, the record goes to 8-5 (61.5%) for 3.8 Units and a R.O.I. of 29.2%.

MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #15 – FADE HOME TEAMS COMING OFF BACK-TO-BACK GAMES IN WHICH THEY SCORED DOUBLE-DIGIT RUNS

Home teams that scored double-digit runs in each of their L2 games are not a good bet in the next contest, having gone just 72-71 (50.3%) since 2008. The net result has been -28.55 Units (R.O.I.: -20%)

Analysis:  You would think that teams scoring at this great of a pace and playing at home would be very successful. However, they are just a 50/50 shot to win and tend to get badly overpriced by books. Avoid overpaying for these teams as they tend to return to normalcy in the next contest. As it turns out, teams that scored double-digit runs in at least three straight games, as I described about the Dodgers in the opener of this article, haven’t fared that well historically in game #4, having gone just 13-15 over the last 10 seasons, with an R.O.I. of -19.3%. I guess in hindsight I got lucky with that game. I’ll still take it of course, but I’ll be better prepared next time around. Hopefully you will now too. Good luck with your continued baseball wagering.

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