Last year about this time, I put together an article looking at what I called Extreme Stats in MLB, and the betting systems that resulted from analyzing them. Well, after watching the last week or so of baseball scores, I figured an update to those systems was in order. The month of June, and in particular the last week of games, have produced some wild offensive numbers. For instance, San Diego’s 14-13 win at Colorado on Sunday had to raise some eyebrows for bettors and oddsmakers alike. But how should we expect teams to react to such unusual contests? Knowing this provides bettors with quite an advantage.
With that in mind, here’s a look at some betting systems that have developed over the last 10 seasons of Major League Baseball, focusing on the follow-up game or games after a very unique performance of extreme statistics. These could include runs, hits, strikeouts, home runs, run differential, and even innings played. Going into this, I figured that the results might not always be positive too, and thus some systems would present good fade opportunities. In any case, let’s update our list of MLB Extreme Stats Betting Systems, so we can put them to work for the rest of the 2019 season.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #1 – BACK ROAD TEAMS AFTER LOSING BY 15 RUNS IN A GAME
• Teams playing on the road in the follow-up game after losing by 15 runs or more in a game are 21-18 (53.8%) for 12.1 Units. (R.O.I.: 31%)
Analysis: This is obviously a hard one to back mentally, as a road team that just got it’s rearend kicked isn’t the most appetizing of wagers. However, they usually bounce back well.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #2 – BACK ROAD TEAMS AS FAVORITES IN NONDIVISIONAL GAMES AFTER SCORING 12 RUNS
• Teams playing as road favorites or pick ‘ems versus non-divisional foes in the follow-up game after scoring 12 runs or more in a game are 120- 77 (60.9%) for 18.8 Units. (R.O.I.: 9.5%)
Analysis: There are obviously far more games in this system than there were in #1, and the R.O.I. is down, but even still, a 9.5% R.O.I. on any betting system should be given good consideration. Look for good road teams coming off high-scoring games, assuming they aren’t playing divisional foes, as the results in that case drop significantly.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #3 – BACK ROAD TEAMS IN DIVISIONAL GAMES AFTER A VERY POOR HITTING GAME
• Teams playing on the road versus divisional foes in the follow-up game after batting .050 or worse are 31-21 (59.6%) for 16.7 Units. (R.O.I.: 32.1%)
The teams in this system also figure to be among those that bettors would be least likely to back, as all of the 52 teams in the sample had 0 or 1 hit in the prior contest. However, against divisional foes on the road, these teams have been able to quickly turn the page from that prior poor hitting contest.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #4 – FADE BIG HOME FAVORITES COMING OFF HUGE HITTING PERFORMANCE
• Home favorites of -175 or higher are on a 14-16 (46.7%) slide in the follow-up game after hitting .463 or better in the prior contest. The net result has been -16.4 Units (R.O.I.: -54.7%)
Analysis: The teams in this system seemed to be getting overpriced by oddsmakers, both because they are at home, and because they are coming off a huge hitting performance. A letdown is the natural result.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #5 – BACK SMALL ROAD UNDERDOGS VERSUS NON-DIVISIONAL FOES AFTER A BIG EXTRA BASE HITS GAME
• Road underdogs of 125 or lower are 34-27 (55.7%) versus non-divisional foes in the followup game after collecting 8 extra base hits in the prior contest. The net result has been 11.4 Units (R.O.I.: 18.7%)
Analysis: It seems so far that hitting is more contagious when teams are on the road. As illustrated by this system, underpriced road teams ride the momentum of a big extra-base hitting game into the next contest, provided it’s not against a divisional foe.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #6 – BACK HOME TEAMS IN DIVISIONAL GAMES THAT HIT FOUR OR MORE HOME RUNS IN THE PRIOR CONTEST
• Home teams in divisional games that hit four or more home runs in a contest are on a 54-35 (60.7%) surge in the follow up MLB game. The net result has been 9.8 Units (R.O.I.: 11%)
Analysis: It seems that hitting many home runs does carry positive momentum into follow-up games, particularly when that team is playing at home against a divisional opponent.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #7 – FADE ROAD TEAMS IN DIVISIONAL GAMES THAT HIT FOUR OR MORE HOME RUNS IN THE PRIOR CONTEST
• Road teams in divisional games that hit four or more home runs in a contest are on a 19-32 (37.3%) slide in the follow-up MLB game. The net result has been -15.9 Units (R.O.I.: -31.2%)
Analysis: This is essentially the exact opposite system as #6 above. In divisional contests, back the home team if it hit four HR’s the prior game, but fade the road team if it did the same thing.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #8 – BACK TEAMS THAT DIDN’T STRIKE OUT IN THE PRIOR CONTEST
• Teams that avoiding striking out offensively in any game are 39-24 (61.9%) in the follow-up MLB game since 2008. The net result has been 16.15 Units (R.O.I.: 25.6%)
Analysis: In today’s day and age of baseball, it seems that teams not striking out in a game would be extremely rare, and it is, as it has happened just 63 times since the start of the ’08 season. It happened four times in the 2017 season, but not once since! However, with a R.O.I. of 25.6%, it pays to watch for these teams, as in those rare cases, they are a solid bet in the next contest.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #9 – FADE TEAMS THAT STRUCK OUT 16 TIMES IN THE PRIOR CONTEST
• Teams that struck out 16 or more times in the prior contest are 240-292 (45.1%) in the follow up MLB game since 2008. The net result has been -41.78 Units (R.O.I.: -7.9%)
Analysis: As opposed to the strike out system in #8, this one occurs much more frequently lately. In all, 532 teams have struck out 16 or more times in the last 10 seasons, including 47 as of June 17 of this year. These teams are not good bets in the next contest, producing a -8% R.O.I. These teams are nearly equally ineffective at home as on the road as well.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #10 – FADE HOME TEAMS THAT LEFT ZERO OR ONE MAN ON BASE IN THE PRIOR CONTEST
• Home teams that had one or fewer men left on base in the prior game are just 113-118 (48.9%) in the follow-up MLB contest since 2008. The net result has been -26.6 Units (R.O.I.: -11.5%)
Analysis: In most cases, teams leaving very few men on base in a game probably did so because they didn’t have many GET ON base. Poor hitting doesn’t carry over well as we’ve already seen, thus fading home teams that left one or fewer men on base in the prior contest is a sound strategy.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #11 – BACK TEAMS WHOSE BULLPEN IS FRESH AND FADE TEAMS WHOSE BULLPEN WAS OVERUSED IN PRIOR GAME
• Teams whose bullpens went less than an inning in the prior contest are 952-886 (51.8%) in the next MLB game since 2008. The net result has been 19.7 Units (R.O.I.: 1.1%)
• Teams whose bullpen was utilized for more than 6 innings in the prior contest are 1363-1366 (49.9%) in the next MLB game since ’08. The net result has been -97.5 Units (R.O.I.: -3.5%)
Analysis: Like the home run system before, these are also not real eye catching when you consider the R.O.I values alone. However, these contradict each other almost directly, and should signal to the bettor the importance of monitoring bullpen usage. The bottom line, teams with fresh bullpens are more profitable wagers than those with overused bullpens.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #12– BACK TEAMS THAT ALLOWED 17 RUNS IN PRIOR GAME
• Teams that allowed 17 or more runs in the prior contest are surprisingly a good bet in the next, having gone 71-62 (53.4%) since 2008. The net result has been 19.52 Units (R.O.I.: 14.7%)
Analysis: Teams that allow 17 or more runs in a game would be considered poison by most bettors, however, they actually turn out to be a very solid wager in the next game. This has happened six times in 2019, with the run-yielding teams turning around and winning three times.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #13– BACK TEAMS THAT JUST THREW A NO-HITTER
• Teams that allowed zero hits in the prior contest come back strong in the next, with a record of 25-16 (61%) since 2008. The net result has been 8.55 Units (R.O.I.: 20.9%)
Analysis: No hitters are clearly a momentum builder for teams, not an emotional letdown as some bettors might make them out to be. Oakland won in the only opportunity on this system so far in 2019, beating Cincinnati on May 8.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #14– BACK HOME TEAMS THAT WERE SHUT OUT IN BACK-TO-BACK GAMES
• Home teams that got shut out in back-to-back games come back strong in the next, with a record of 61-40 (60.4%) since 2008. The net result has been 21.55 Units (R.O.I.: 21.3%)
Analysis: Teams coming off back-to-back shutout losses are obvious candidates for underpricing by oddsmakers. These teams, when playing at home, come back quite well, however, returning better than 20% on investment for bettors. Incidentally, if you add a third straight shutout to this system, the record goes to 5-3 (62.5%) for 1.95 Units and a R.O.I. of 24.4%.
MLB EXTREME STATS BETTING SYSTEM #15– BACK HOME TEAMS COMING OFF BACKTO-BACK GAMES IN WHICH THEY SCORED DOUBLE-DIGIT RUNS
• Home teams that scored double-digit runs in each of their L2 games are a good bet recently in the next contest, having gone 35-14 (71.4%) over the last 2 seasons. The net result has been 15.3 Units (R.O.I.: 31.2%)
Analysis: As you would suspect, teams that get on this big of a roll are tough to stop. This used to be a fade system prior to the 2017 season, but it has taken off since. Despite overpricing by oddsmakers, bettors are still turning profits backing these hot offensive teams at home.