100 CFB head-to-head trends for 2022 season

Army_Navy

College football is defined by traditions as much as any other sport, and oftentimes these traditions can lead to repeat performances amongst teams. One of the best ways to observe this from a betting perspective is by analyzing the head-to-head series trends between teams. With the first full week of the 2022 season getting underway Thursday, here is a list of 100 top head-to-head trends that you’ll want to mark on your calendars. You’ll see that I’ve included the game date for every one of the trends.

Note that our VSiN Pro Matchups subscribers will get all the top head-to-head trends for the season weekly. That said, the trends below are “extra special,” with each one being at least 7 games over .500, and thus quite profitable in recent years.

I’ve grouped the trends into several different categories and sorted them by date of the game. Enjoy the analysis and best of luck with your college football wagers this week, and every week for the coming season. Hopefully this analysis plays a part in your ticket cashing ventures.

Lay the wood

* Favorites are on an 8-0 ATS run in the North Texas-SMU head-to-head series (9/3)

* Favorites are riding a 9-0-1 ATS record into the 2022 series meeting between Syracuse and Louisville (9/3)

* Favorites in the New Mexico State-UTEP series have gone 7-0-1 ATS since '13 (9/10)

* On a current 4-0 ATS run, favorites in the Tulane-Houston series are 15-3 ATS since '03 (9/30)

* Favorites have had their way in the MAC series between Miami-Ohio and Buffalo, 11-2-1 ATS since '08 (10/1)

* Laying the points in the Memphis-East Carolina series has been profitable lately, with a 9-1 ATS mark L10 (10/15)

* With ATS wins in 16 of the L17 head-to-head meetings, laying the points in the Tulsa-Tulane series has been nearly automatic of late (11/5)

* Favorites are riding an 8-1-1 ATS record into the 2022 series meeting between Tennessee and South Carolina (11/19)

* The Chalk is on an extended 18-5 ATS run in the Florida-Florida State rivalry (11/25)

Steve’s thoughts: Any trend going 16 out of 17 is significant in my opinion, so don’t gloss over the 11/5 game between Tulsa and Tulane simply because there are a number of huge tilts on the schedule that week. Last year it was Tulsa taking a 20-13 decision at Tulane, covering a 3.5-point road chalk number. The teams are expected to be fairly even in 2022, and the favored team might be decided by home-field advantage, in this case Tulsa.

Back the barking dog

* Underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the L8 of the Duke-Northwestern series (9/10)

* Another series involving Big Ten teams, Minnesota-Michigan State has seen the underdog go 10-2 ATS since 2001 (9/24)

* Boise State has huge underdog trends in two Mountain West Conference series -- 7-0 ATS SDSU and 8-0 ATS Fresno State (9/30, 10/8)

* ACC rivals Duke and Georgia Tech have played a competitive series of late, with underdogs on a 7-0-1 ATS run (10/8)

* The underdog in the Virginia-Miami head-to-head series is on a 15-3 ATS surge (10/29)

* Underdogs have won eight straight ATS in the Louisville-Wake Forest ACC series (10/29)

* Fifteen of the L17 Tulsa-SMU matchups have been won ATS by underdogs (10/29)

* The Kansas State-Baylor rivalry has seen underdogs go 12-3 ATS in the L15 (11/12)

* Dating back to '07, underdogs are now on a run of 11-4 ATS in the Paul Bunyan Axe game between Minnesota and Wisconsin (11/26)

Steve’s thoughts: The most profitable trend on this list is the one between Virginia and Miami, and it could prove to be a big contest, with the Hurricanes seeking an ACC title and having to travel through Charlottesville on 10/29. In all likelihood, Miami will be the favorite that day, not a good sign for them. The biggest game among the above bunch could be the Minnesota-Wisconsin season-ending contest in Madison, where both teams could be in the hunt for a spot in the conference title game.

The comforts of home

* Hosts are on a 9-game ATS winning streak in the SMU-UCF series (10/1)

* The host team in the Mississippi State-Kentucky rivalry has converted eight in a row against the spread (10/15)

* Home field has been quite advantageous in the Arizona-Washington series, as hosts are on a 10-2 ATS surge (10/15)

* Hosts have gone 9-2 ATS in the L11 of these series: Kansas-Oklahoma (10/15) and Arizona State-Colorado (10/29)

* Home teams are on an 8-1 ATS surge in the Mississippi State-LSU clash (10/22)

* Hosts are on an 8-game ATS winning streak in the North Texas-UTSA head-to-head series (10/22)

* Home teams also own a 9-2 ATS edge in the L11 of these series: Buffalo-Ohio (11/1) and North Carolina-Wake Forest (11/12)

* In the intra-state ACC series between NC State and Wake Forest, hosts have gone 13-2 ATS in the L15 (11/5)

* Home field has meant a ton in the Memphis-UCF series, with hosts going 14-1 ATS in L15 (11/6)

* Home field has been quite advantageous in the Washington State-Arizona State series, as hosts are on a 13-4 ATS surge (11/12)

* Hosts are 7-0-1 ATS in the L8 of the Arkansas-Missouri series (11/25)

* Known as perhaps the nation's biggest rivalry, home teams are 13-5 ATS in L18 installments of Auburn-Alabama Iron Bowl (11/26)

Steve’s thoughts: Right at the top of the list we have a key game between American Athletic Conference title hopefuls SMU and UCF. If the trend holds, the Knights will have an early leg up in what appears to be a four-team battle for the crown. Of course, no game gets the college football blood boiling more than an Iron Bowl contest between Auburn and Alabama, and in the rivalry, home-field advantage has meant a lot. The Tide will host the game in 2022 and will likely be a favorite in excess of 20 points.

Road field advantage?

* The UL rivalry between Monroe and Lafayette has seen an incredible 18-1 ATS road trend develop of late (9/24)

* Road teams are on 7-game winning streaks in TCU-SMU (9/24) and Purdue-Wisconsin series (10/22)

* Road teams in the Tulsa-Navy (10/8) and Indiana-Ohio State (11/12) series are on 8-1 ATS surges

* In the MAC series between Eastern Michigan and Ball State, road teams are 14-4 ATS since '04 (10/22)

* The visitor in the Texas-Oklahoma State Big 12 series has gone 11-3-1 ATS in the L15 (10/22)

* Road teams have been the best wager in the MAC series between Miami-

Ohio and Akron recently, 9-1 ATS in L10 (10/29)

* The visitor in the Florida State-Miami ACC series has gone 12-4 ATS in the L16 (11/5)

* The visitor in the Ball State-Toledo MAC series has gone 11-3 ATS in the L14 (11/8)

* Road teams have been solid in the MAC series between Western Michigan and Central Michigan recently, 9-0-1 ATS in L10 (11/16)

* The road teams in the Mountain West series between Fresno State and Nevada are on 9-2 ATS surge (11/19)

* Visitors in the Big Game between Stanford and Cal are on a 10-2-1 ATS surge (11/19)

* Road teams have been money in the Northwestern-Purdue Big Ten series recently, 8-1-1 ATS in L10 (11/19)

* The visitor in the Boise State-Wyoming Mountain West series has gone 12-4 ATS in the L16 (11/19)

* Road teams have been incredible in the Georgia Tech-Georgia rivalry, 17-3-1 ATS in L21 (11/26)

* The visitor in the Louisville-Kentucky football rivalry has gone 11-2 ATS in the L13 (11/26)

* Visiting teams have gone 8-1 ATS in L9 of UTEP-UTSA series (11/26)

Steve’s thoughts: This is a huge list and goes to show how motivated college football teams can get by having a chance to knock off their rivals on their home fields. The first trend continues to amaze me, as regardless of how strong each of the teams has been in any given year, it is the road team that seems to always play better in the Louisiana battle between Monroe and Lafayette. This year it is the Ragin’ Cajuns that figure to benefit from recent series history. Perhaps the biggest game from the road-field advantage list pits Texas at Oklahoma State on Oct. 22, with both teams hoping to contend for a Big 12 crown this fall.

One-sided dominance

* Arkansas State has converted 12-straight point spread wins versus Louisiana-Monroe (10/1)

* Temple will go into its 2022 matchup versus Memphis on a 7-game ATS winning streak (10/1)

* Virginia has converted seven straight matchups vs. Duke, both SU and ATS (10/1)

* Northern Illinois is on a 9-1 ATS surge vs. MAC rival Ball State (10/1)

* Georgia has gone 8-1 ATS in its L9 SEC cross-division battles with

Auburn (10/8)

* South Florida has been a thorn in Cincinnati's side, converting 7 straight ATS opportunities (10/8)

* Arizona State had its 13-game ATS head-2-head winning streak over Washington snapped in 2021 but still won outright (10/8)

* Baylor has won 10 straight ATS vs. Kansas (10/22)

* Oklahoma State is on an 12-3-1 ATS run versus Kansas (11/5)

* Utah State has gone 8-1 ATS in its L9 meetings with San Jose State (11/19)

* LSU is on an 11-game ATS winning streak vs. Texas A&M (11/25)

* Louisiana has gone 8-1 ATS in nine prior meetings versus Texas State (11/26)

Steve’s thoughts: Easily the most interesting trend on this one-sided dominance list is that in the LSU-Texas A&M series. For whatever the reason, the Tigers have gotten the best of the Aggies, and have covered the point spread in 11 straight meetings. This year’s game is in College Station on Thanksgiving weekend and figures to have stakes for both teams.

Not a team’s favorite place to visit

* Pittsburgh has won seven straight games ATS when hosting Virginia Tech (10/8)

* Rice is on an 8-1 ATS surge when hosting UTEP since 2003 (11/3)

* Arkansas is on a stellar 9-1 ATS run hosting Ole Miss (11/19)

Steve’s thoughts: The Arkansas-Ole Miss game from Fayetteville on 11/19 is almost certain to have bowl placement implications for both the Razorbacks and Rebels. Ole Miss has struggled at Arkansas, even when it has gone into the game as the undisputed better team. Of course, this year that doesn’t figure to be the case.

Loving the rival locale

* Ball State has had its way with Central Michigan in Mount Pleasant, winning straight ATS (10/8)

* Alabama has gotten up for its trips to Knoxville to face Tennessee, going 9-1 ATS in L10 (10/15)

* Georgia Tech has enjoyed its recent trips to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech, winning 7 straight ATS (11/5)

Steve’s thoughts: Alabama’s game at Tennessee is going to be given plenty

of hype should Tennessee pick up where it left off last season, that is by scoring plenty of points. The Volunteers’ Neyland Stadium is one of the biggest venues in the country and can get very loud and intimidating for visiting teams. Alabama has not fallen for it in recent visits, and figures to be poised for the 2022 matchup as well.

At least one team gets up for the rivalry

* NC State is on an extended run of 17-3-1 ATS versus ACC foe Florida State (10/8)

* Kentucky has owned South Carolina of late, and is on 8-1 ATS run vs. Gamecocks since '13 (10/8)

* Florida State has also struggled against ACC rival Clemson of late, 4-12 ATS since '05 (10/15)

* Michigan State is on an 12-2 ATS run versus Michigan (10/29)

* West Virginia has won six straight ATS vs. TCU and is 8-1 ATS in L9 (10/29)

* Florida State's ACC rivalry struggles continue with an 0-7-1 ATS skid versus Georgia Tech (10/29)

* Stanford has enjoyed success recently versus UCLA, going 10-3-1 ATS in the L14 series meetings (10/29)

* Oregon has owned the ATS ledger versus Washington of late, going 14-2-1 ATS in the L17 series meetings (11/12)

* TCU has gotten the better of Baylor in recent meetings, 11-3 ATS in L14 (11/19)

* Oklahoma is on an extended run of 12-4-1 ATS in its Bedlam Battle vs. Oklahoma State (11/19)

* Central Michigan has gone 10-3 ATS in its L13 matchups versus rival Eastern Michigan (11/25)

* Kansas State has owned its in-state rival Kansas over the last decade-plus, going 10-3 ATS in L13 (11/26)

Steve’s thoughts: As you can see, Florida State appears on this list multiple times, and not in a good way, as rivals have taken out decades of frustration in recent years against the weakened Seminoles. If FSU has any hope of getting back to where it was in its heyday, this year’s bunch will have to overcome these head-2-head struggles against regular conference foes. There are of course some other big trends on this rivalry list that could help shape the season in some conferences. Little brother Michigan State hopes to continue being a thorn in Big Brother Michigan’s side, and Oklahoma will look to maintain its success in the Bedlam Battle, perhaps the key game on the 2022 Big 12 slate.

No total too low

* Seven straight matchups in the ACC series between Wake Forest and Florida State have gone UNDER the total (10/1)

* In the L11 Tiger Tussles between LSU and Auburn from Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, UNDER the total is 10-1 (10/1)

* Against any logical thinking, the Hawaii-Nevada series has produced 9 straight UNDERs (10/15)

* Iowa State-Texas has failed to reach the posted total in 7 straight matchups, going UNDER each time since '15 (10/15)

* The Boston College-Wake Forest series has gone UNDER the total in 10 of L11 meetings (10/22)

* In the L8 games between Memphis and Tulane at Tulane, UNDER the total is 8-0 (10/29)

* In the L9 games between USC and Arizona in Tucson, UNDER the total is 8-1 (10/29)

* Seven straight matchups in the SEC series between Mississippi State and Texas A&M have gone UNDER the total (10/29)

* Eight straight Auburn-Mississippi State matchups in Starkville, Miss. have gone UNDER the total (11/5)

* The Cal-USC series has gone UNDER the total in 14 of L17 meetings (11/5)

* The L8 games of Air Force-Army (11/5) and Penn State-Rutgers (11/19) series have gone UNDER the total

* In the L9 matchups between New Mexico and Air Force, UNDER the total is 8-1 (11/12)

* In the L20 installments of the Egg Bowl between Mississippi State and Ole Miss, UNDER the total is 15-4-1 (11/24)

* Referred to as the “Bear Bowl”, UNDERs have been prevalent in the Cal-UCLA rivalry, with nine straight totals going that way (11/25)

* Navy and Army have played to an incredible 16 straight UNDERs on totals (12/10)

Steve’s thoughts: There are a lot of huge rivalry games on this lengthy list and the scoring tends to be driven down by the intensity of the hatred between the two programs. Or in the case of the Army-Navy rivalry, simply because of the grind-it-out style of football the teams play. In any case, don’t be surprised to see a lot of these trends continue when they start qualifying on Oct. 1.

Shootout time

* South Carolina and Arkansas have played a high scoring series of late, going OVER the total in eight of L9 (9/10)

* Twelve of the L14 games in the Big 12 series of Kansas State-Oklahoma have gone OVER the total (9/24)

* The Mountain West series between Air Force and UNLV has gone OVER the total in 10 of L12 (10/15)

* OVER the total is 13-4 in the L17 meetings between Colorado State and Air Force (11/19)

* All seven Big Ten matchups between Ohio State and Maryland went OVER the total (11/19)

* OVER the total is 9-2 in the L11 Georgia Tech-North Carolina clashes (11/19)

* Michigan has also gone OVER the total in eight straight Big Games against Ohio State (11/26)

* Middle Tennessee State and FIU have played a high-scoring series, going 12-3-1 OVER the total in L16 (11/26)

* OVER the total is 10-1 in the L11 Oklahoma-Texas Tech battles (11/26)

Steve’s thoughts: Some rivalries have become known for their scoring prowess. The biggest game in the Big Ten each season has now gone over the total in eight straight matchups, that being between Michigan and Ohio State. With both teams expected to have their best offenses in many years, is there any reason to suspect that this year’s showdown will be any different? The Buckeyes are mostly to thank for the OVER essentially, as they’ve blistered the Wolverines defense for 41.5 PPG over the last eight years. Michigan (27.1 PPG in that span) hasn’t been bad itself offensively either. The games have been so explosive that the 8-game OVER run has seen the average point production surpass the average posted total by 18.6 PPG. That’s a lot of cushion for those wagering OVERs.

 

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