1 heavyweight pick at UFC 269

By Reed Kuhn  (VSiN.com) 

December 7, 2021 08:02 PM

(To view the chart associated with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly)

One more fight card is planned in December after UFC 269, but make no mistake that Saturday’s card is the promotion’s grand finale. In addition to two title fights, the event is loaded with ranked talent. This includes two former champions and a bevy of former main-eventers. There’s a lot to like — and a lot to bet.

When heavyweights Tai Tuivasa and Augusto Sakai finally square off after some failed bookings, we should expect only a striking duel. They have combined for just one landed takedown in their UFC careers, and we shouldn’t expect either to resort to grappling. But while both prefer to stand and trade, they do so with very different strengths. 

Both have good power accuracy and strike with similar rates of output. But their biggest difference is power, and it’s noticeable on paper. Tuivasa not only relies on a greater mix of power strikes, he has landed them much harder. That contrasts sharply with Sakai’s lazy jab and lack of effective power from long distance.

Picking a heavyweight striking duel can be tricky since the same rules don’t really apply as they might in smaller divisions, where a fighter overreliant on power might never get a chance to use it. But in this fight, with Sakai certainly willing to engage, Tuivasa will also be willing to oblige with powerful counters. At some point, that power should be the difference and put Sakai in a bad spot.

Moneyline play on Tuivasa at even odds; Tuivasa by TKO at + 150 or more.

back to news

Related News

Live On Air

Streaming Now: The Greg Peterson Experience

play Watch Live radio Listen Live


A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.