NFL Week 7 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index
Week 6 of the NFL season came with a vengeance, as multiple starting quarterbacks around the league got hurt, which makes predicting this week’s slate a little tricky for some teams, especially when guys may play but are banged up. That’s a hard thing to quantify, but is part of the game nonetheless, so I’m going to try to avoid those teams altogether if possible, and find some value in numbers I have faith in for this week’s best bets.
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Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) vs Los Angeles Chargers, O/U 48
Without looking at the numbers and just taking this matchup at face value, it feels like a shootout type of game; Patrick Mahomes vs Justin Herbert in a showdown of elite offenses, right? RIGHT? Not according to my T Shoe Index. I only project 43.5 points in this matchup, as the Chiefs’ defense has been stifling this season and ranks No. 2 in my defensive ratings. The surprising unit in this game is the Chiefs’ offense, which ranks only 13th in the NFL in my offensive ratings – which is based on how many points a team would be expected to score against the average NFL team. The Chiefs are only giving up 14.7 points per game, while the Chargers score and allow 25 and 24 points per game, respectively. I like the game under here, but if you’re scared of Andy Reid’s offense, you could also consider the Chargers team total under 21.5.
Pick: Under 48 (Play to 47)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) vs Atlanta Falcons, O/U 37
There have been four games this season with a total of 38 or less; the under in those games has gone 3-0-1. That’s a small sample size and I’m not one to blindly play any trend; however, it’s worth noting. The fact that TSI projects this game to only have 35 total points in conjunction with that trend this season, as well as the fact that my totals in general have been white hot, I’m going to trust the data and what my eyeballs tell me about the Bucs’ defense and its putrid offense and take the under here. Both of these offenses are outside the top 25 in the league in my offensive ratings, while both defenses are in the top 12. This is going to be a slugfest. I suggest putting in your bet and just checking your account Sunday evening and spare yourself watching this rock fight, unless you’re a Bucs or Falcons fan (maybe even if you are?).
Pick: Under 37 (play to 35.5)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
