Player props for CJ Stroud, Randall Cobb, Tony Pollard
Player prop bets really have become the go-to wagers for a lot of gamblers out there and there are a lot of opportunities because there are so many players to pick from. It is also hard for the sportsbooks to put up accurate numbers on every player because individual stats have a high degree of volatility game in and game out.
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As a result, we should be able to find some good values and some smart wagers in that market based on a variety of factors. Injuries, weather, and game stats are three of the ones that I key in on and those will be some of the reasons why these players are good bets for their specific player props this week.
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(odds as of October 5, 10:30 p.m. PT)
C.J. Stroud Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Falcons enter Week 5 as the top rush defense in the league by EPA/play. Their Rush EPA against of -2.40 is even better than the Browns, who have allowed an average of 0.0 rushing yards before contact this season. The Texans are among the league’s worst rushing offenses in EPA/play, so it makes sense that they would look at this game and just plan to have Stroud throw it all over the place.
The Falcons rank 23rd in Dropback EPA, despite the fourth-highest Pressure% in the league per Pro-Football-Reference. That means that they’re getting close to the quarterback, but they’ve only converted that into five sacks. Stroud has shown a ton of pocket poise for a rookie and I would anticipate that he does the same here in this game against a secondary that he can beat.
Randall Cobb Under 1.5 Receptions (-105)
With Aaron Rodgers injured, it should come as no surprise that Cobb doesn’t really have a role in the Jets offense. Cobb had three catches for 20 yards and had his lowest snap share of the season last week at 39%. That was a game that the Jets trailed throughout against the Chiefs and Cobb still wasn’t able to get on the field much.
He did have four targets, so maybe Zach Wilson is trying to rely a little more on the veteran, but he’s not getting much separation and Wilson isn’t playing all that well. I like this one more than his 12.5 receiving yards, but I think both bets could definitely be in play this week.
Tony Pollard Over 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
Pollard has gone over this total three times this season and the only game he didn’t was when he had 60 yards last week against the Patriots. That was also his lowest snap share of the season at 53% in the 38-3 win. With a much closer game likely on tap, Pollard is going to get the bulk of the work and probably get a lot of touches as well.
The 49ers have allowed the fourth-most receptions to running backs, so Pollard should be able to pick up some yardage there. Also, it might be a little surprising to hear, but the 49ers rank 28th in Rush EPA on defense and 29th in Rush Success Rate Against. They’ve been really good against the pass and obviously have an elite pass rush, but they’ve been a little bit lackadaisical against the run and I think that could give Pollard the chance at a really nice game.
