NFC, AFC Championship Games tightly lined for 49ers vs. Eagles and Bengals vs. Chiefs
The consensus opinion is that there were five elite teams in the NFL this season. Four are still standing going into conference championship weekend. The San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles have been on a crash course in the NFC Championship Game for a while and we’re going to run back the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship Game that we saw last season.
The Buffalo Bills are the one team that fell short, but there were only four spots for five teams. It is also not a coincidence that we have Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts in action this weekend. Given the supporting cast, Brock Purdy’s inclusion makes sense, but the presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year has certainly played his part as well.
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The small differences between these four teams are very evident based on the Super Bowl LVII odds from DraftKings.
Super Bowl LVII Odds
- Philadelphia Eagles +250
- Kansas City Chiefs +260
- Cincinnati Bengals +275
- San Francisco 49ers +330
We’ve never seen the Super Bowl hopefuls bunched up like this before going into conference championship weekend. Per the Sports Odds History database, a few seasons have come close, but never to this degree, with just an 80-cent difference between the favorite and the long shot. Here are some past comparables:
2019 – Super Bowl LIII
- New Orleans Saints +175
- Kansas City Chiefs +275
- Los Angeles Rams +350
- New England Patriots +350
The Patriots would go on to beat the Rams 13-3 in the Super Bowl after beating the Chiefs (+3) 37-31 in overtime in the AFC Championship Game. The Rams were also +3 with a 26-23 overtime win over the Saints in the NFC Championship Game on Greg Zuerlein’s 57-yard game-winner.
2016 – Super Bowl 50
- Carolina Panthers +200
- New England Patriots +200
- Arizona Cardinals +300
- Denver Broncos +400
The Broncos won 24-10 over the Panthers in that Super Bowl. Denver (+3) won 20-18 on the road at New England in the AFC Championship Game. The Panthers were -3 and crushed the Cardinals 49-15 in the NFC Championship Game.
1981 – Super Bowl XV
- San Diego Chargers +160
- Dallas Cowboys +200
- Philadelphia Eagles +250
- Oakland Raiders +300
The Raiders won 27-10 over the Eagles in the Super Bowl. So, ironically, all three times we’ve seen things really bunched up on the futures board, the long shot has won. Maybe that’s good news for the 49ers.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 46)
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 46.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
According to Sports Odds History, this could be the third time ever that both the AFC Championship Game and NFC Championship Game had lines under -3. Field-goal spreads are pretty commonplace, but this week’s games are lower, a sign of dwindling home-field advantage in the NFL, but also the even nature of all four teams involved.
At time of writing, the Eagles are -2.5 with extra juice against the 49ers, so we could see a -3, but it may not stick around long. The Chiefs are -1 at most shops against the Bengals with a line that would only reach 3 if Mahomes is ruled out and it would be with Cincinnati as a sizable road favorite. The other times were 1982 and 1997.
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